ARB Fights Back Against EPA with Statistics

On the heels of the next Supreme Court battle being waged by states and proponants of stricter regulations to control greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cars, the California Air Resources Board (ARB) has release a report comparing GHG reductions under the national CAFE standards to reductions that would be made under the proposed ARB regulations (AB 1493). The report was issued due to an unsupported claim made by USEPA administrator, Steven Johnson that California's vehicle GHG rules are less effective than recently adopted national CAFE standards. ARB staff analyzed both standards and prepared their own evaluation.

The study calculates the two programs using an "apples-to-apples" comparison of total tons of GHG emissions reduced under CAFE standards versus the projected reduction of emissions if the ARB ruling was fully implemented.

The following results are from the Executive Summary:
- In calendar year 2016, our State standards will reduce California’s GHG emissions by 17 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide. This is more than double the 8 MMT reduction produced by the federal rules.

- By 2020, California is committed to implement revised, more stringent GHG emission limits. These increase the stringency of the current rules and would reduce California GHG emissions by 33 MMTs of carbon dioxide, 74 percent more than the 19 MMTs from the federal rules in 2020.

- ARB analysis estimates the effects of the federal CAFE standards on GHG emission rates. This allows a comparison of the impact of the two programs on vehicle efficiency. Since the California rules are significantly more effective at reducing GHGs than the Federal CAFE program, they also yield a better fuel efficiency – roughly 44 mpg in 2020 for the California vehicle fleet as compared to the new CAFE standard of 35 mpg.

- The cumulative benefits of our standards have also been estimated. Between 2009 and 2016, the California standards will prevent emissions of 58 MMTs of CO2. This is almost three times the 20 MMTs expected if only the new federal CAFE standards were implemented. By 2020, the full California rules would prevent 167 MMT of CO2 emissions, more than twice the 76 MMTs reductions of CO2 expected if only the federal standards were implemented.

- There are also significant benefits for the other states that adopt the California standards. Twelve states have done so to date. In those states in 2020, California’s more stringent limits will reduce GHG emissions in those states by 59 MMTs of carbon dioxide, a 59 percent improvement over the federal standards in 2020.

Benefits to California:
- In calendar year 2016, California standards will reduce GHG emissions from cars in California by 9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide more than the federal CAFE standard. This is more than double the reduction produced by the federal standard.

- By 2020, California will have implemented revised, more stringent GHG emission limits, as set forth in its Climate Action Plan. As a result of these new requirements GHG emissions will be reduced by almost 14 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (77 percent) more than the federal standard in 2020.

- There has been interest in how the California and Federal emission standards compare. For illustration purposes only, ARB has converted the federal fuel economy standards to greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide) emissions and assumed a proportional increase of the CAFE standard between 2011 and 2020, when its standard reaches 35 mpg.

- The California standard is significantly more effective at reducing greenhouse gases than the new Federal standard, yielding an equivalent fuel economy of 44 mpg by 2020 as compared to the new CAFE standard of 35 mpg.

- The California standard is 16% more stringent for 2016 models, and 18% more stringent for 2020 models, when the planned second phase of California’s standards is in place.

Benefits to Other States that Adopt the ARB Program:
- California consumed 11.5 percent of the motor vehicle gasoline in 2005 as compared to 21 percent for the 12 states that have adopted the regulation. In sum, these thirteen states consumed about one-third of the nation’s motor vehicle gasoline in 2005.

- In calendar year 2016, adopting California standards will reduce GHG emissions from cars in twelve states by 13 million metric tons of carbon dioxide more than the federal CAFE standard. This is 79 percent greater than the reduction produced by the federal standard.

- By 2020, states adopting California’s proposed more stringent GHG emission limits would reduce GHG emissions by 22 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (59 percent) more than the federal standard in 2020.

To read the full report, go to: http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ccms/ab1493_v_cafe_study.pdf